Bearish Bitcoin Channel Break
Bitcoin Falling
Bitcoin is on watch on Friday with the futures market turning lower again and now testing the bull channel lows. A break here could put a retest of YTD lows in focus, turning the picture more bearish for Bitcoin near-term. The move lower comes amidst a fresh uptick in uncertainty over the Iran war which is fuelling a stronger US Dollar and on soaring safe-haven demand.
Rising Oil – Weaker Risk Sentiment
Additionally, rising oil prices are denting risk sentiment further ahead of the weekend with traders seeing diluted hopes of a near-term end to the war following an optimistic start to the week in response to news of Trump’s ceasefire on Iranian energy sites. With news now that the US is considering sending a further 10,000 troops to the Middle East, focus has turned back to risks of a ground invasion.
Bearish Outlook
Against this backdrop, BTC has fallen amidst a general weakening in risk appetite through the week. Given the reaction we’ve seen, the near-term outlook for BCT looks skewed to the downside unless we hear news of a positive breakthrough, reviving peace hopes. If we don’t get any positive headlines and rhetoric from both sides continues, BTC should continue lower with risk assets falling foul of a continued push higher in USD.
Technical Views
BTC
The sell off from mid-March highs has seen BTC breaking back down below the $69,605 level with price now testing below the bull channel lows. If the channel break holds, $62,490 will be the next bear-target to note, in line with falling momentum studies readings.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72% and 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.